The Next Phase of Growth in Nashville: Retail Expansion, Market Shifts, and Future Outlook

Nashville remains one of the nation’s most resilient and dynamic retail markets, even as others contract. Recent panel discussions, including those with CCIM Nevada and RBN Las Vegas’ Brian Sorrentino, highlight a nationwide softening, yet Nashville is performing differently. While Las Vegas and New York declined by 14% and 10% respectively, Nashville grew by 2% year-over-year, driven by population growth, affordability, and strong suburban fundamentals.  

Market Fundamentals  

Population growth continues to surpass expectations, especially in Williamson and Rutherford counties. 

Nashville continues to be: 

• Family-friendly   

• Affordable and accessible  

• A value destination for domestic tourism  

• The city is perceived as safe, supported by a strong police presence in key districts. 

While international travel hasn’t fully recovered, domestic visitors are still choosing Nashville because it delivers entertainment at a lower cost than coastal tourist markets. For both residents and visitors, Nashville remains “the cheap place to move and the cheap place to visit,” an advantage that keeps retail demand stable.  

New-to-Market Entrants  

The market continues to attract national brands, though not all concepts are scaling successfully.  

• In-N-Out’s national headquarters relocation generates long-term interest. It is yet to be determined whether the brand will evolve into a true “local” presence. 

• CAVA’s footprint exists largely because of its Zoe’s Kitchen acquisition, versus organic growth.  

• Pickleball concepts that have swept the nation have limited real estate options in Nashville, as the market frowns on single-use sites that can’t be backfilled. Some niche concepts are simply too risky at today’s rental rates and construction costs. 

• Fitness concepts (Orangetheory, Barre, etc.) show signs of regional overexpansion. 

The overarching challenges of supply and demand dominate this tight market, and new entrants consider thoughtfully whether the have the runway for the years it may take to gain critical mass.  

Emerging Retail Markets  

Rather than a dramatic corridor shift, Nashville’s next retail chapter is about the spaces between established markets:  

• Mt. Juliet → Lebanon: farm tracts filling in, forming a continuous commercial corridor  

• Murfreesboro → Smyrna: previously separated markets now considered a single trade area 

• Franklin → Spring Hill: rapid infill as development pushes through farmland  

• Meanwhile, Simon is advancing plans for a luxury outlet center at the I65/I-840 junction in Thompson’s Station, Williamson County, expanding Nashville’s retail draw for tourism and locals seeking experiential shopping.  

Pitfalls & Challenges  

Despite strong demand, several challenges shape the market. Many areas still reflect a bedroom community mindset and lack density; suburban population thresholds for retailers need to be reconsidered. New national concepts struggle to penetrate suburban submarkets unless density hits a critical mass. Furthermore, proposed and in-progress large-scale developments create uneven benefits in their submarkets and continue to deliver limited options to an already undersupplied marketplace. These challenges correlate directly with the behavioral shifts and demographic realities of the market. 

• Consumers are changing, but not dramatically.   

• Commuting times are shifting but not altering shopping behavior.   

• People shop in their own “world,” the 3–5-mile radius around their home.   

• Locals rarely visit tourist districts unless they entertain visitors.   

• Convenience rules: time scarcity means everything must be closer to the consumer.  

With Davidson County shrinking and more families relocating to the suburbs, retail demand continues to migrate outward. There’s a reason Urban Walmart is 60,000 SF while suburban Walmarts reach 200,000 SF; square footage follows households.  

Capital Markets: A Window of Opportunity Ahead  

The industry is watching closely for anticipated interest rate cuts. Developers believe that when rates settle, underwriting new projects becomes meaningfully viable. For now, ground-up development is dominating as redevelopment is neither feasible nor required. Existing shop space is limited, and in several submarkets, developers are literally running out of dirt.  

Conclusion 

Nashville is transitioning from a high-growth “hot market” into a more mature, suburban-anchored retail ecosystem. The next chapter will be defined by:  

• Population-driven suburban expansion  

• Infill between major corridors  

• Experience-led retail and entertainment  

• Disciplined concept selection  

• Ground-up development outpacing second-generation leasing.  

For Centennial Retail Services, the opportunity lies in helping tenants and developers navigate these shifts, identifying the right submarkets, the right sites, and the right timing in a city where growth is happening in real time.